{"id":5968,"date":"2021-07-15T09:51:30","date_gmt":"2021-07-15T08:51:30","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/klima-fakten.net\/?p=5968"},"modified":"2021-09-15T21:06:16","modified_gmt":"2021-09-15T20:06:16","slug":"how-much-co2-will-remain","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/klima-fakten.net\/?p=5968&lang=en","title":{"rendered":"How much CO2 will remain in the atmosphere?"},"content":{"rendered":"<div class=\"pdfprnt-buttons pdfprnt-buttons-post pdfprnt-top-right\"><a href=\"https:\/\/klima-fakten.net\/index.php?rest_route=wpv2posts5968&print=print\" class=\"pdfprnt-button pdfprnt-button-print\" target=\"_blank\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/klima-fakten.net\/wp-content\/plugins\/pdf-print\/images\/print.png\" alt=\"image_print\" title=\"Inhalt drucken\" \/><\/a><\/div>\n\n\n<p>There are two parts of the climate discussion:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\"><li>The sensitivity of the temperature w.r.t. the  atmospheric <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/klima-fakten.net\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-c8bf376ab4961bc1590ce2481aca0d8d_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#67;&#79;&#95;&#50;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"15\" width=\"35\" style=\"vertical-align: -3px;\"\/> content <\/li><li>The amount of <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/klima-fakten.net\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-c8bf376ab4961bc1590ce2481aca0d8d_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#67;&#79;&#95;&#50;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"15\" width=\"35\" style=\"vertical-align: -3px;\"\/> in the atmosphere<\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>While the <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/klima-fakten.net\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-c8bf376ab4961bc1590ce2481aca0d8d_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#67;&#79;&#95;&#50;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"15\" width=\"35\" style=\"vertical-align: -3px;\"\/> sensitivity dominates the <a href=\"http:\/\/klima-fakten.net\/?p=4898&amp;lang=en\">scientific climate discussion<\/a>, the political decisions are dominated by &#8222;carbon budget&#8220; criteria on the basis of numbers, which are hardly publicly discussed. <br>It has been claimed that more that 20% of the emitted <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/klima-fakten.net\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-c8bf376ab4961bc1590ce2481aca0d8d_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#67;&#79;&#95;&#50;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"15\" width=\"35\" style=\"vertical-align: -3px;\"\/> will remain in the atmosphere for more than 1000 years. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This article will investigate the functional relation between <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/klima-fakten.net\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-c8bf376ab4961bc1590ce2481aca0d8d_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#67;&#79;&#95;&#50;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"15\" width=\"35\" style=\"vertical-align: -3px;\"\/> emissions and the actual <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/klima-fakten.net\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-c8bf376ab4961bc1590ce2481aca0d8d_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#67;&#79;&#95;&#50;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"15\" width=\"35\" style=\"vertical-align: -3px;\"\/> content in the atmosphere. <br>Atfter finding this relation several future emission scenarios and their effect on the atmospheric <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/klima-fakten.net\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-c8bf376ab4961bc1590ce2481aca0d8d_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#67;&#79;&#95;&#50;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"15\" width=\"35\" style=\"vertical-align: -3px;\"\/> content are investigated.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Carbon dioxid emissions in the past<\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p>Starting point are <a href=\"https:\/\/raw.githubusercontent.com\/owid\/co2-data\/master\/owid-co2-data.csv\">the actual <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/klima-fakten.net\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-c8bf376ab4961bc1590ce2481aca0d8d_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#67;&#79;&#95;&#50;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"15\" width=\"35\" style=\"vertical-align: -3px;\"\/> emissions during the last 170 years<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"748\" height=\"441\" src=\"http:\/\/klima-fakten.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/07\/image-2.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-5976\" srcset=\"https:\/\/klima-fakten.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/07\/image-2.png 748w, https:\/\/klima-fakten.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/07\/image-2-300x177.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 748px) 100vw, 748px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>It is very informative to look at the relative changes of this time series (<a href=\"http:\/\/covid.joachimdengler.de\/?page_id=63&amp;lang=en#Test-of-the-bell-curve\">here the mathematical derivation<\/a>). This is the equivalent of economic growth for <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/klima-fakten.net\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-c8bf376ab4961bc1590ce2481aca0d8d_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#67;&#79;&#95;&#50;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"15\" width=\"35\" style=\"vertical-align: -3px;\"\/> emissions. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"847\" height=\"441\" src=\"http:\/\/klima-fakten.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/07\/image-26.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-6151\" srcset=\"https:\/\/klima-fakten.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/07\/image-26.png 847w, https:\/\/klima-fakten.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/07\/image-26-300x156.png 300w, https:\/\/klima-fakten.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/07\/image-26-768x400.png 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 847px) 100vw, 847px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>The largest increase in <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/klima-fakten.net\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-c8bf376ab4961bc1590ce2481aca0d8d_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#67;&#79;&#95;&#50;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"15\" width=\"35\" style=\"vertical-align: -3px;\"\/> emissions was between 1945 and 1980, the period of great growth in wealth and quality of life primarily in the industrialized countries, with the absolute peak of global emissions growth passed in 1970, interestingly 3 years before the first oil crisis. At the turn of the millennium, there was another increase in emissions, this time caused by the economic boom of the emerging economies.  <strong>Since 2003, the growth of emissions has been steadily declining, and has de facto already fallen below the zero line<\/strong>, i.e. <strong>from now on, emissions are not expected to grow, despite the growth in China, India and other emerging and developing countries<\/strong>. <br>This is convincingly illustrated in the time-series graph of the <a href=\"http:\/\/www.globalcarbonatlas.org\/en\/CO2-emissions\">Global Carbon Project<\/a>: <\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large is-resized\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/klima-fakten.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/07\/image-27-1024x731.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-6161\" width=\"694\" height=\"495\" srcset=\"https:\/\/klima-fakten.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/07\/image-27-1024x731.png 1024w, https:\/\/klima-fakten.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/07\/image-27-300x214.png 300w, https:\/\/klima-fakten.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/07\/image-27-768x548.png 768w, https:\/\/klima-fakten.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/07\/image-27-120x85.png 120w, https:\/\/klima-fakten.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/07\/image-27.png 1191w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 694px) 100vw, 694px\" \/><figcaption>Source: <a href=\"http:\/\/www.globalcarbonatlas.org\/en\/CO2-emissions\">Global Carbon Project<\/a> (Time Series)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>The long-standing decline in emissions in industrialized countries is currently balancing out with the slowing rise in emerging economies China and India since 2010. <br><strong>Accordingly, it is realistic to call constant <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/klima-fakten.net\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-c8bf376ab4961bc1590ce2481aca0d8d_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#67;&#79;&#95;&#50;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"15\" width=\"35\" style=\"vertical-align: -3px;\"\/> emissions from 2019 onward &#8222;business as usual&#8220;<strong>. <\/strong><\/strong> While 2020 was a Covid-19 driven emissions decline,<a href=\"https:\/\/www.iea.org\/reports\/global-energy-review-2021\"> the rebound in 2021 is expected to remain 1.2% below the 2019 level<\/a>.<strong><strong> <\/strong><\/strong> <\/p>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\">CO<sub>2<\/sub> content of the atmosphere with simple emission models<\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p>It is assumed that before 1850 the <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/klima-fakten.net\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-c8bf376ab4961bc1590ce2481aca0d8d_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#67;&#79;&#95;&#50;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"15\" width=\"35\" style=\"vertical-align: -3px;\"\/> level was approximately constant and that the measured <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/klima-fakten.net\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-c8bf376ab4961bc1590ce2481aca0d8d_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#67;&#79;&#95;&#50;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"15\" width=\"35\" style=\"vertical-align: -3px;\"\/> content is the sum of the pre-industrial constant level and a function of the <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/klima-fakten.net\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-c8bf376ab4961bc1590ce2481aca0d8d_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#67;&#79;&#95;&#50;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"15\" width=\"35\" style=\"vertical-align: -3px;\"\/> emissions.  The aim of this chapter is to find a simple function, which explains the atmospheric content. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Three different models are tested:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\"><li>The first model assumes that all <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/klima-fakten.net\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-c8bf376ab4961bc1590ce2481aca0d8d_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#67;&#79;&#95;&#50;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"15\" width=\"35\" style=\"vertical-align: -3px;\"\/> emissions will remain in the atmosphere forever. This means that the additional &#8211; on top of the pre-industrial leval &#8211; <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/klima-fakten.net\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-c8bf376ab4961bc1590ce2481aca0d8d_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#67;&#79;&#95;&#50;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"15\" width=\"35\" style=\"vertical-align: -3px;\"\/> content would be the cumulative sum of all <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/klima-fakten.net\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-c8bf376ab4961bc1590ce2481aca0d8d_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#67;&#79;&#95;&#50;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"15\" width=\"35\" style=\"vertical-align: -3px;\"\/>-emissions. <\/li><li>The second model assumes an exponential decay of emitted <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/klima-fakten.net\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-c8bf376ab4961bc1590ce2481aca0d8d_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#67;&#79;&#95;&#50;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"15\" width=\"35\" style=\"vertical-align: -3px;\"\/> into the oceans or biosphere with a half life time of 70 years, i.e. half of all emitted <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/klima-fakten.net\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-c8bf376ab4961bc1590ce2481aca0d8d_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#67;&#79;&#95;&#50;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"15\" width=\"35\" style=\"vertical-align: -3px;\"\/> is absorbed after 70 years. This is achieved by a convolution with an exponential decay kernel and a time constant <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/klima-fakten.net\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-561ace96292ac9dc5a3ec11978646d16_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#55;&#48;&#47;&#108;&#110;&#40;&#50;&#41;&#32;&#92;&#97;&#112;&#112;&#114;&#111;&#120;&#32;&#49;&#48;&#48;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"19\" width=\"116\" style=\"vertical-align: -5px;\"\/> years<\/li><li>The third model assumes an exponential decay of emitted <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/klima-fakten.net\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-c8bf376ab4961bc1590ce2481aca0d8d_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#67;&#79;&#95;&#50;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"15\" width=\"35\" style=\"vertical-align: -3px;\"\/> into the oceans or biosphere with a half life time of 35 years, i.e. half of all emitted <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/klima-fakten.net\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-c8bf376ab4961bc1590ce2481aca0d8d_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#67;&#79;&#95;&#50;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"15\" width=\"35\" style=\"vertical-align: -3px;\"\/> is absorbed after 35 years. This is achieved by a convolution with an exponential decay kernel and a time constant <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/klima-fakten.net\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-213a29de5afa6c49ecf48c92a3ebd8aa_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#51;&#53;&#47;&#108;&#110;&#40;&#50;&#41;&#32;&#92;&#97;&#112;&#112;&#114;&#111;&#120;&#32;&#53;&#48;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"19\" width=\"107\" style=\"vertical-align: -5px;\"\/>years. <\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>In order to make the numbers comparable, the emissions, that are measured in Gt have to be converted to ppm. This is done with the equivalence of 3210 Gt <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/klima-fakten.net\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-c8bf376ab4961bc1590ce2481aca0d8d_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#67;&#79;&#95;&#50;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"15\" width=\"35\" style=\"vertical-align: -3px;\"\/> = 410 ppm . <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The yellow graph are the measured actual emissions from the diagram above, and the blue graph is <a href=\"ftp:\/\/data.iac.ethz.ch\/CMIP6\/input4MIPs\/UoM\/GHGConc\/CMIP\/yr\/atmos\/UoM-CMIP-1-1-0\/GHGConc\/gr3-GMNHSH\/v20160701\/mole_fraction_of_carbon_dioxide_in_air_input4MIPs_GHGConcentrations_CMIP_UoM-CMIP-1-1-0_gr3-GMNHSH_0000-2014.csv\">the measured actual <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/klima-fakten.net\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-c8bf376ab4961bc1590ce2481aca0d8d_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#67;&#79;&#95;&#50;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"15\" width=\"35\" style=\"vertical-align: -3px;\"\/> content<\/a>. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"939\" height=\"441\" src=\"http:\/\/klima-fakten.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/07\/image-3.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-5978\" srcset=\"https:\/\/klima-fakten.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/07\/image-3.png 939w, https:\/\/klima-fakten.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/07\/image-3-300x141.png 300w, https:\/\/klima-fakten.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/07\/image-3-768x361.png 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 939px) 100vw, 939px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>The first &#8222;cumulative&#8220; model approximates the measured <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/klima-fakten.net\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-c8bf376ab4961bc1590ce2481aca0d8d_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#67;&#79;&#95;&#50;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"15\" width=\"35\" style=\"vertical-align: -3px;\"\/> content quite well from 1850 to 1910, but heavily overpredicts the <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/klima-fakten.net\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-c8bf376ab4961bc1590ce2481aca0d8d_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#67;&#79;&#95;&#50;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"15\" width=\"35\" style=\"vertical-align: -3px;\"\/> content after 1950.  This falsifies the hypothesis that <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/klima-fakten.net\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-c8bf376ab4961bc1590ce2481aca0d8d_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#67;&#79;&#95;&#50;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"15\" width=\"35\" style=\"vertical-align: -3px;\"\/> stays in the atmosphere for &#8222;thousands of years&#8220;.  <br>Also the second model model with a half life time of 70 years of emitted <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/klima-fakten.net\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-c8bf376ab4961bc1590ce2481aca0d8d_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#67;&#79;&#95;&#50;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"15\" width=\"35\" style=\"vertical-align: -3px;\"\/> overshoots considerably after 1950, it approximates the time between 1925 and 1945. The third model with a half life time for emissions of 35 year fits the actual <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/klima-fakten.net\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-c8bf376ab4961bc1590ce2481aca0d8d_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#67;&#79;&#95;&#50;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"15\" width=\"35\" style=\"vertical-align: -3px;\"\/> content from 1975 till now.    <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This confirms, what has very recently been <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nature.com\/articles\/s41467-020-18203-3\">published in Nature <\/a>, that the rate of <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/klima-fakten.net\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-c8bf376ab4961bc1590ce2481aca0d8d_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#67;&#79;&#95;&#50;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"15\" width=\"35\" style=\"vertical-align: -3px;\"\/> absorption into the oceans increases with increasing atmospheric <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/klima-fakten.net\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-c8bf376ab4961bc1590ce2481aca0d8d_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#67;&#79;&#95;&#50;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"15\" width=\"35\" style=\"vertical-align: -3px;\"\/> content.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image is-resized\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/media.springernature.com\/lw685\/springer-static\/image\/art%3A10.1038%2Fs41467-020-18203-3\/MediaObjects\/41467_2020_18203_Fig2_HTML.png\" alt=\"figure2\" width=\"561\" height=\"787\"\/><figcaption>Source: https:\/\/www.nature.com\/articles\/s41467-020-18203-3<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>The same relation, in particular the increasing &#8222;carbon sink&#8220; of oceans and biosphere, is reported from the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.globalcarbonproject.org\/\">Global Carbon Project<\/a> in this graphics:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/ourworldindata.org\/uploads\/2020\/06\/CO2-sources-sinks-800x451.png\" alt=\"Co2 sources sinks\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Although we can expect a further increase of the <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/klima-fakten.net\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-c8bf376ab4961bc1590ce2481aca0d8d_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#67;&#79;&#95;&#50;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"15\" width=\"35\" style=\"vertical-align: -3px;\"\/> flux into the ocean in the future, <strong>we can therefore safely use the third model with a half life time of 35 years for conservative, i.e. non-optimistic predictions<\/strong>. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Future scenarios<\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p>In order to evaluate policy decisions, I will apply this model to predict the future <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/klima-fakten.net\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-c8bf376ab4961bc1590ce2481aca0d8d_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#67;&#79;&#95;&#50;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"15\" width=\"35\" style=\"vertical-align: -3px;\"\/> content with 3 different emission scenarios:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\"><li>The first scenario (red) I&#8217;d like to call the &#8222;Business as usual&#8220; scenario, in the sense that China already now increases <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/klima-fakten.net\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-c8bf376ab4961bc1590ce2481aca0d8d_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#67;&#79;&#95;&#50;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"15\" width=\"35\" style=\"vertical-align: -3px;\"\/> emissions only marginally and has committed itself to stop increasing <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/klima-fakten.net\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-c8bf376ab4961bc1590ce2481aca0d8d_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#67;&#79;&#95;&#50;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"15\" width=\"35\" style=\"vertical-align: -3px;\"\/> emissions after 2030. Today emissions are not growing any more.  This scenario means, that we keep global emission on the 2019 level.  <\/li><li>The second scenario (green) is the widely proclaimed decarbonisation by 2050<\/li><li>The third scenario (blue) is a compromise proposal, reducing emissions to 50% of the 2019 value (37 Gt) by 2100. This scenario reflects the facts that<strong> fossil fuels are finite, and that research and development of sound new technologies takes time<\/strong>: <\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"416\" src=\"http:\/\/klima-fakten.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/07\/image-24-1024x416.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-6143\" srcset=\"https:\/\/klima-fakten.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/07\/image-24-1024x416.png 1024w, https:\/\/klima-fakten.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/07\/image-24-300x122.png 300w, https:\/\/klima-fakten.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/07\/image-24-768x312.png 768w, https:\/\/klima-fakten.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/07\/image-24.png 1054w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>The consequences for the <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/klima-fakten.net\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-c8bf376ab4961bc1590ce2481aca0d8d_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#67;&#79;&#95;&#50;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"15\" width=\"35\" style=\"vertical-align: -3px;\"\/>-content based on the simple model with 35 years half life time are these:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\"><li>The first scenario (red) increases <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/klima-fakten.net\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-c8bf376ab4961bc1590ce2481aca0d8d_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#67;&#79;&#95;&#50;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"15\" width=\"35\" style=\"vertical-align: -3px;\"\/> content, but not beyond 510ppm in the long distant future, which is less double the amount of the pre-industrial era. Depending on the sensitivity this means a hypothetical <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/klima-fakten.net\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-c8bf376ab4961bc1590ce2481aca0d8d_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#67;&#79;&#95;&#50;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"15\" width=\"35\" style=\"vertical-align: -3px;\"\/> induced temperature increase of 0,16\u00b0 to 0,8\u00b0 from current temperatures, resp. 0,45\u00b0 to 1,3\u00b0 since pre-industrial times, depending on the sensitivity.  <\/li><li>The second scenario &#8212; worldwide fast decarbonisation &#8212; (green) hardly increases  the <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/klima-fakten.net\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-c8bf376ab4961bc1590ce2481aca0d8d_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#67;&#79;&#95;&#50;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"15\" width=\"35\" style=\"vertical-align: -3px;\"\/> content any more, and eventually reduces the atmospheric <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/klima-fakten.net\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-c8bf376ab4961bc1590ce2481aca0d8d_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#67;&#79;&#95;&#50;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"15\" width=\"35\" style=\"vertical-align: -3px;\"\/> content to pre-industrial levels. <br>Do we really want this??? <strong>This would mean deprivation of all plants, which thrive best at <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/klima-fakten.net\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-c8bf376ab4961bc1590ce2481aca0d8d_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#67;&#79;&#95;&#50;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"15\" width=\"35\" style=\"vertical-align: -3px;\"\/>-levels larger that 400 ppm.   Not even the IPCC ever formulated this as a desirable goal. <\/strong><\/li><li>The compromise scenario (blue) will slightly raise <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/klima-fakten.net\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-c8bf376ab4961bc1590ce2481aca0d8d_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#67;&#79;&#95;&#50;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"15\" width=\"35\" style=\"vertical-align: -3px;\"\/> content but keep it below 460 ppm, and then gradually reduce it to the 1990 level.  The atmospheric <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/klima-fakten.net\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-c8bf376ab4961bc1590ce2481aca0d8d_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#67;&#79;&#95;&#50;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"15\" width=\"35\" style=\"vertical-align: -3px;\"\/> levels will begin to fall after 2065.  <\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"393\" src=\"http:\/\/klima-fakten.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/07\/image-25-1024x393.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-6145\" srcset=\"https:\/\/klima-fakten.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/07\/image-25-1024x393.png 1024w, https:\/\/klima-fakten.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/07\/image-25-300x115.png 300w, https:\/\/klima-fakten.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/07\/image-25-768x295.png 768w, https:\/\/klima-fakten.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/07\/image-25.png 1115w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption>Atmospheric <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/klima-fakten.net\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-c8bf376ab4961bc1590ce2481aca0d8d_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#67;&#79;&#95;&#50;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"15\" width=\"35\" style=\"vertical-align: -3px;\"\/>  content prediction based on simple model with 35 years half life time.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/klima-fakten.net\/?page_id=6573&amp;lang=en\">A rigorous mathematical model based on the the single simple assumption that oceanic and biological <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/klima-fakten.net\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-c8bf376ab4961bc1590ce2481aca0d8d_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#67;&#79;&#95;&#50;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"15\" width=\"35\" style=\"vertical-align: -3px;\"\/> absorption is proportional to <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/klima-fakten.net\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-c8bf376ab4961bc1590ce2481aca0d8d_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#67;&#79;&#95;&#50;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"15\" width=\"35\" style=\"vertical-align: -3px;\"\/> concentration<\/a> comes to essentially the same result, with the nice side effect to have an error estimate of the prediction: <\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/klima-fakten.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/08\/image-11-1024x397.png\" alt=\"\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Conclusion<\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p>Not even the most pessimistic of the scenarios described above reaches a &#8222;catastrophic&#8220; <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/klima-fakten.net\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-c8bf376ab4961bc1590ce2481aca0d8d_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#67;&#79;&#95;&#50;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"15\" width=\"35\" style=\"vertical-align: -3px;\"\/> content in the atmosphere. <br><strong>The complete decarbonisation scenario by 2050 can only be judged as utter nonsense.<\/strong> <strong>No one can wish to go back to pre-industrial <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/klima-fakten.net\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-c8bf376ab4961bc1590ce2481aca0d8d_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#67;&#79;&#95;&#50;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"15\" width=\"35\" style=\"vertical-align: -3px;\"\/> levels. <\/strong><br>On the other hand, the limited fossile resources motivate to replace them in a feasible and humane way. This is reflected in the &#8222;compromise&#8220; scenario, which gradually reduces long-term emissions to the level of approximately the year 1990.  <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>There are two parts of the climate discussion: The sensitivity of the temperature w.r.t. the atmospheric $CO_2$ content The amount of $CO_2$ in the atmosphere &hellip; <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"_uf_show_specific_survey":0,"_uf_disable_surveys":false,"twitterCardType":"","cardImageID":0,"cardImage":"","cardTitle":"","cardDesc":"","cardImageAlt":"","cardPlayer":"","cardPlayerWidth":0,"cardPlayerHeight":0,"cardPlayerStream":"","cardPlayerCodec":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[31],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-5968","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-latest"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/klima-fakten.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5968","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/klima-fakten.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/klima-fakten.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/klima-fakten.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/klima-fakten.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=5968"}],"version-history":[{"count":116,"href":"https:\/\/klima-fakten.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5968\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":6810,"href":"https:\/\/klima-fakten.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5968\/revisions\/6810"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/klima-fakten.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=5968"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/klima-fakten.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=5968"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/klima-fakten.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=5968"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}