{"id":3145,"date":"2020-02-21T10:32:02","date_gmt":"2020-02-21T09:32:02","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/klima-fakten.net\/?p=3145"},"modified":"2020-03-05T07:59:33","modified_gmt":"2020-03-05T06:59:33","slug":"recent-albedo-change-and-climate-sensitivity","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/klima-fakten.net\/?p=3145&lang=en","title":{"rendered":"Recent albedo change and climate sensitivity"},"content":{"rendered":"<div class=\"pdfprnt-buttons pdfprnt-buttons-post pdfprnt-top-right\"><a href=\"https:\/\/klima-fakten.net\/index.php?rest_route=wpv2posts3145&print=print\" class=\"pdfprnt-button pdfprnt-button-print\" target=\"_blank\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/klima-fakten.net\/wp-content\/plugins\/pdf-print\/images\/print.png\" alt=\"image_print\" title=\"Inhalt drucken\" \/><\/a><\/div>\n\n\n<p>The climate discussion is overwhelmingly dominated by the discussion about the influence of <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/klima-fakten.net\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-c8bf376ab4961bc1590ce2481aca0d8d_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#67;&#79;&#95;&#50;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"15\" width=\"35\" style=\"vertical-align: -3px;\"\/>, which according the radiation transport equations describing the outgoing infrared radiation (OLR) has a certain influence on the earth&#8217;s radiation budget.  <br>There are, however, more factors that need to be considered. <strong>The incoming energy flux, the SW insolation, is obviously of decisive importance<\/strong>.  The actual amount of energy flux coming from the sun, the &#8222;solar constant&#8220; has proven to be extremely stable, but the <strong>global albedo, which decides how much solar flux enters the atmosphere, is an extremely important control parameter<\/strong>.   <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The dilemma about the earth&#8217;s albedo has been, that <strong>there is not a &#8222;nice theory&#8220; of how to determine it from a simple (possibly human induced) cause<\/strong>. On the contrary it involves many currently badly understood factors, some of which are, but others are not under human control:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\"><li>Clouds of different types at different altitudes,<\/li><li>reflecting and scattering aerosols,<\/li><li>influences on cloud generation, such as cosmic rays and magnetic fields, <\/li><li>surface and atmospheric properties as a consequence of snow cover, urbanisation, agriculture, air pollution, etc.,<\/li><li>possible feedback effects of temperature via water vapor. <\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>Lacking a comprehensive theory, the influence of  earth albedo has for a long time been neglected or ignored in the mainstream discussion. <br>But there is another approach. <strong>Satellite measurements have made it possible to actually measure the direct effect of albedo on the actual solar insolation<\/strong>.  Recently a 30 year analysis has been published by J. Herman et al.: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.researchgate.net\/publication\/274768295_A_net_decrease_in_the_Earth's_cloud_aerosol_and_surface_340_nm_reflectivity_during_the_past_33_yr_1979-2011\/fulltext\/57aac75108ae42ba52ad05de\/A-net-decrease-in-the-Earths-cloud-aerosol-and-surface-340-nm-reflectivity-during-the-past-33-yr-1979-2011.pdf?_sg%5B0%5D=IfOXt40uKcTL6EADbp8ih2wiDaAYT5MF7uchXuUEsDBJz6Veen0_3Bi54ZhqKjMg_pT2n9Gv2xnggpsBsLIu2g.uAGRJ3hqSEAYa5gTqzSQyAIokuzlGsYjT6UtET6w3MXMzfQSnNnHzJqT3Xv11TqSRgi73yl59XXoIpXD6ymhBg&amp;_sg%5B1%5D=E8pe_VtsmG-iD7Df0rbLCyJV5rDm8tlYJreXBypZg5i7O1kFqYKHCEFOPi4vrXeh8FcQtZ-crUzwH-F-pZzEEMgMrR1bG9SOUXkWBX6pf20r.uAGRJ3hqSEAYa5gTqzSQyAIokuzlGsYjT6UtET6w3MXMzfQSnNnHzJqT3Xv11TqSRgi73yl59XXoIpXD6ymhBg&amp;_iepl=\"><strong>Net decrease in the Earth\u2019s cloud, aerosol, and surface 340 nm reflectivity<\/strong>.<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This careful analysis shows a clear, significant trend for the overall reflexivity, representing  75% of the earth&#8217;s total solar insolation (latitude -60&#8230;60 degree, smaller insolation and larger albedo near the poles):   <\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"534\" height=\"409\" src=\"http:\/\/klima-fakten.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/02\/image-1.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-3148\" srcset=\"https:\/\/klima-fakten.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/02\/image-1.png 534w, https:\/\/klima-fakten.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/02\/image-1-300x230.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 534px) 100vw, 534px\" \/><figcaption>Measured earth&#8217;s reflexivity from 1980 to 2010<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>The changed reflectivity has been converted into changes of SW incoming resp. reflected flux: <\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"690\" height=\"525\" src=\"http:\/\/klima-fakten.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/02\/image-2.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-3149\" srcset=\"https:\/\/klima-fakten.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/02\/image-2.png 690w, https:\/\/klima-fakten.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/02\/image-2-300x228.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 690px) 100vw, 690px\" \/><figcaption>Energy budget of the incoming SW flux, with changes due to albedo decrease<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>This means that in the 30 years from 1980 to 2010 the solar insolation flux has increased by <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/klima-fakten.net\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-60207451323d690621fbd50280fe3183_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#50;&#46;&#51;&#51;&#92;&#102;&#114;&#97;&#99;&#123;&#87;&#125;&#123;&#109;&#94;&#50;&#125;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"23\" width=\"52\" style=\"vertical-align: -7px;\"\/>. <strong>This albedo caused increase within 30 years is larger than the estimated forcing caused by the increase of <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/klima-fakten.net\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-c8bf376ab4961bc1590ce2481aca0d8d_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#67;&#79;&#95;&#50;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"15\" width=\"35\" style=\"vertical-align: -3px;\"\/> since the beginning of the industrialisation<\/strong>. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Based on the <a href=\"http:\/\/klima-fakten.net\/?page_id=1245&amp;lang=en#Stefan-Boltzmann\">energy balance between incoming SW insolation    <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/klima-fakten.net\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-b2cafef0f5e4d9a9a9e50b3393a684e4_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#83;&#95;&#97;&#61;&#83;&#92;&#99;&#100;&#111;&#116;&#40;&#49;&#45;&#97;&#41;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"18\" width=\"120\" style=\"vertical-align: -4px;\"\/>  and outgoing LW radiation by means of the Stefan-Boltzmann law<\/a>   <p class=\"ql-center-displayed-equation\" style=\"line-height: 43px;\"><span class=\"ql-right-eqno\"> &nbsp; <\/span><span class=\"ql-left-eqno\"> &nbsp; <\/span><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/klima-fakten.net\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-5e8ad50173ca8276180af1172f4f3fbf_l3.png\" height=\"43\" width=\"138\" class=\"ql-img-displayed-equation quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#92;&#91;&#84;&#61;&#92;&#115;&#113;&#114;&#116;&#91;&#52;&#93;&#123;&#92;&#102;&#114;&#97;&#99;&#123;&#83;&#92;&#99;&#100;&#111;&#116;&#40;&#49;&#45;&#97;&#41;&#125;&#123;&#52;&#92;&#99;&#100;&#111;&#116;&#92;&#115;&#105;&#103;&#109;&#97;&#125;&#125;&#92;&#93;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\"\/><\/p>  the <a href=\"https:\/\/pubs.giss.nasa.gov\/docs\/1984\/1984_Hansen_ha07600n.pdf\">temperature sensitivity to Insolation changes<\/a> (without feedback) is <p class=\"ql-center-displayed-equation\" style=\"line-height: 39px;\"><span class=\"ql-right-eqno\"> &nbsp; <\/span><span class=\"ql-left-eqno\"> &nbsp; <\/span><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/klima-fakten.net\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-a25e263466af7f9bae85ae5305cf7636_l3.png\" height=\"39\" width=\"134\" class=\"ql-img-displayed-equation quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#92;&#91;&#92;&#102;&#114;&#97;&#99;&#123;&#92;&#68;&#101;&#108;&#116;&#97;&#32;&#84;&#125;&#123;&#84;&#125;&#32;&#61;&#32;&#48;&#46;&#50;&#53;&#92;&#99;&#100;&#111;&#116;&#92;&#102;&#114;&#97;&#99;&#123;&#92;&#68;&#101;&#108;&#116;&#97;&#32;&#83;&#95;&#97;&#125;&#123;&#83;&#95;&#97;&#125;&#92;&#93;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\"\/><\/p> <br><p class=\"ql-center-displayed-equation\" style=\"line-height: 39px;\"><span class=\"ql-right-eqno\"> &nbsp; <\/span><span class=\"ql-left-eqno\"> &nbsp; <\/span><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/klima-fakten.net\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-20088ab631bf23460d64c9b929574374_l3.png\" height=\"39\" width=\"268\" class=\"ql-img-displayed-equation quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#92;&#91;&#92;&#68;&#101;&#108;&#116;&#97;&#32;&#84;&#32;&#61;&#32;&#48;&#46;&#50;&#53;&#92;&#99;&#100;&#111;&#116;&#32;&#92;&#102;&#114;&#97;&#99;&#123;&#50;&#46;&#51;&#51;&#92;&#99;&#100;&#111;&#116;&#32;&#50;&#53;&#53;&#125;&#123;&#49;&#54;&#49;&#46;&#51;&#43;&#55;&#56;&#125;&#32;&#75;&#32;&#61;&#32;&#48;&#46;&#54;&#50;&#32;&#75;&#92;&#93;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\"\/><\/p><br>During the same time of 30 years the<a href=\"http:\/\/asl.umbc.edu\/pub\/chepplew\/journals\/nature14240_v519_Feldman_CO2.pdf\"> estimated change of OLR flux due to <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/klima-fakten.net\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-c8bf376ab4961bc1590ce2481aca0d8d_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#67;&#79;&#95;&#50;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"15\" width=\"35\" style=\"vertical-align: -3px;\"\/><\/a> is <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/klima-fakten.net\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-187b06c4a40778b7525626442f7476f2_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#48;&#46;&#54;&#32;&#92;&#102;&#114;&#97;&#99;&#123;&#87;&#125;&#123;&#109;&#94;&#50;&#125;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"23\" width=\"44\" style=\"vertical-align: -7px;\"\/> resulting in the temperature sensitivity  <p class=\"ql-center-displayed-equation\" style=\"line-height: 39px;\"><span class=\"ql-right-eqno\"> &nbsp; <\/span><span class=\"ql-left-eqno\"> &nbsp; <\/span><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/klima-fakten.net\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-51ef1d9786d5b33995ccb4d2f352b655_l3.png\" height=\"39\" width=\"268\" class=\"ql-img-displayed-equation quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#92;&#91;&#92;&#68;&#101;&#108;&#116;&#97;&#32;&#84;&#32;&#61;&#32;&#48;&#46;&#50;&#53;&#92;&#99;&#100;&#111;&#116;&#32;&#92;&#102;&#114;&#97;&#99;&#123;&#48;&#46;&#54;&#92;&#99;&#100;&#111;&#116;&#32;&#50;&#53;&#53;&#125;&#123;&#49;&#54;&#49;&#46;&#51;&#43;&#55;&#56;&#125;&#32;&#75;&#32;&#61;&#32;&#48;&#46;&#49;&#54;&#32;&#75;&#92;&#93;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\"\/><\/p> <br>Due to the assumed constant lapse rate the temperature change at the surface is the same as the calculated temperature change which is somewhere in the mid troposphere. <br>There are 2 important and simple consequences from this obervation and calculations:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\"><li><strong>The influence of <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/klima-fakten.net\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-c8bf376ab4961bc1590ce2481aca0d8d_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#67;&#79;&#95;&#50;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"15\" width=\"35\" style=\"vertical-align: -3px;\"\/> accounts for 20% of the temperature change during the last 30 years, whereas the change of albedo accounts for 80% of the temperature change<\/strong>. <\/li><li>Both forcings together would have created an average temperature change of 0.8 K. T<strong>he actual change of global temperature<\/strong> is significantly less, depending on the institution measuring the temperature it <strong>is 0.48..0.55 K<\/strong>, which is <strong>slightly more than half of the forcing to retain SB-balance<\/strong>. <strong>Therefore there must be rather strong negative feedback<\/strong>, <strong>which reduces the effect of additional SW flux (from albedo) resp. diminished LW flux (from <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/klima-fakten.net\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-c8bf376ab4961bc1590ce2481aca0d8d_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#67;&#79;&#95;&#50;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"15\" width=\"35\" style=\"vertical-align: -3px;\"\/>) by appr. 50%<\/strong>.  The most obvious and likely &#8222;feedback&#8220; is the buffering by heat absorption into and evaporation from the oceans, covering about 70% of the  earth surface.<\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"584\" src=\"http:\/\/klima-fakten.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/02\/image-3-1024x584.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-3194\" srcset=\"https:\/\/klima-fakten.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/02\/image-3-1024x584.png 1024w, https:\/\/klima-fakten.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/02\/image-3-300x171.png 300w, https:\/\/klima-fakten.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/02\/image-3-768x438.png 768w, https:\/\/klima-fakten.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/02\/image-3.png 1352w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption>Global average satellite temperatures (UAH) <\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"571\" src=\"http:\/\/klima-fakten.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/02\/image-4-1024x571.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-3195\" srcset=\"https:\/\/klima-fakten.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/02\/image-4-1024x571.png 1024w, https:\/\/klima-fakten.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/02\/image-4-300x167.png 300w, https:\/\/klima-fakten.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/02\/image-4-768x429.png 768w, https:\/\/klima-fakten.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/02\/image-4.png 1380w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption>Global average surface temperature (HadCRUT4)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>For the <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/klima-fakten.net\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-c8bf376ab4961bc1590ce2481aca0d8d_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#67;&#79;&#95;&#50;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"15\" width=\"35\" style=\"vertical-align: -3px;\"\/> sensitivity (Temperature change when doubling <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/klima-fakten.net\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-c8bf376ab4961bc1590ce2481aca0d8d_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#67;&#79;&#95;&#50;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"15\" width=\"35\" style=\"vertical-align: -3px;\"\/>) this feedback means that<strong> at 600 ppm we can expect a temperature change less than 0.5 degree K<\/strong> compared to pre-industrial times.  This conclusion is drawn under the assumption, that albedo changes are independent of <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/klima-fakten.net\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-c8bf376ab4961bc1590ce2481aca0d8d_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#67;&#79;&#95;&#50;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"15\" width=\"35\" style=\"vertical-align: -3px;\"\/>. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Obviously the question arises, what caused the decrease of the albedo. There is no clear answer to this currently. The size of the effect and the lack of a plausible theory appear to <strong>rule out the possibility that it is related to the global <img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/klima-fakten.net\/wp-content\/ql-cache\/quicklatex.com-c8bf376ab4961bc1590ce2481aca0d8d_l3.png\" class=\"ql-img-inline-formula quicklatex-auto-format\" alt=\"&#67;&#79;&#95;&#50;\" title=\"Rendered by QuickLaTeX.com\" height=\"15\" width=\"35\" style=\"vertical-align: -3px;\"\/> level<\/strong>.  Currently it is more likely that there is a <strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.nature.com\/articles\/s41467-017-02082-2.pdf\">causal relation of influence on cloud generation from aerosols, sun activity and cosmic rays<\/a><\/strong>. But also factors of human influence through <strong>increasing surface absorption<\/strong> (&#8222;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.sciencedirect.com\/science\/article\/pii\/S0301479717303201\">urban heat islands<\/a>&#8222;, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.ted.com\/talks\/allan_savory_how_to_fight_desertification_and_reverse_climate_change?language=de\">desertification<\/a> ) are challenges for further research and constructive activity. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The climate discussion is overwhelmingly dominated by the discussion about the influence of $CO_2$, which according the radiation transport equations describing the outgoing infrared radiation &hellip; <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"_uf_show_specific_survey":0,"_uf_disable_surveys":false,"twitterCardType":"","cardImageID":0,"cardImage":"","cardTitle":"","cardDesc":"","cardImageAlt":"","cardPlayer":"","cardPlayerWidth":0,"cardPlayerHeight":0,"cardPlayerStream":"","cardPlayerCodec":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[31],"tags":[33,35,34],"class_list":["post-3145","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-latest","tag-albedo","tag-climate","tag-sensitivity"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/klima-fakten.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3145","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/klima-fakten.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/klima-fakten.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/klima-fakten.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/klima-fakten.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=3145"}],"version-history":[{"count":75,"href":"https:\/\/klima-fakten.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3145\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":3350,"href":"https:\/\/klima-fakten.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3145\/revisions\/3350"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/klima-fakten.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=3145"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/klima-fakten.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=3145"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/klima-fakten.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=3145"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}